Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/235433 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 9063
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
This study examines the causal joint effect of a new political regime and war against Iraq on life expectancy of Iranians for the period 1978–1988 during the revolution and war. I use a synthetic control approach to construct a synthetic Iran based on a weighted average of other Middle East and North Africa (‘MENA’) and Organization of the Petroleum Exporting (‘OPEC’) countries. The synthetic Iran matches the average level of key pre-revolution life expectancy correlates and the evolution of the factual Iranian life expectancy during the post-revolution period through the end of the war. I find a sizable negative effect of the joint treatment. The results show that in total, an average Iranian has lost an accumulated 62 years of life during the post-revolution period until the end of war with Iraq in 1988. The average annual years of life lost is approximately six years. In other words, in the absence of the revolution and war, an average Iranian’s life expectancy could be approximately six years longer.
Subjects: 
synthetic control method
treatment effect
Iran
Iraq
war
conflict
revolution
life expectancy
health
JEL: 
C23
H56
F51
D74
Q34
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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