Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/235315 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 8945
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
In light of the recent tit-for-tat trade dispute between China and the US, interest in quantifying the effects of the so-called phase one agreement has risen. To this end, the paper quantifies the impact of the asymmetric managed trade agreement using such a multi-country open-economy dynamic general equilibrium model. Besides assessing the direct implications for China and the US, trade diversion effects are also analyzed. The model-based analysis finds noticeable positive (negative) impacts of the agreement for the US (China) as well as negative spillover effects for countries not directly affected by the managed trade deal due to trade diversion. The impact of possible future trade agreements is also examined.
Subjects: 
phase one deal
managed trade
open-economy dynamic general equilibrium model
United States
China
JEL: 
F13
F41
F42
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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