Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/234923
Authors: 
Ikefuji, Masako
Magnus, Jan R.
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
ISER Discussion Paper No. 1111
Publisher: 
Osaka University, Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER), Osaka
Abstract: 
A Bayesian typically uses data and a prior to produce a posterior. In practice, the data and the posterior are often observed but not the prior. We shall follow the opposite route, using data and the posterior information to reveal the prior. We then apply this theory to (equilibrium) climate sensitivity as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in an attempt to get some insight into their prior beliefs. It appears that the IPCC scientists have agreed a priori on a value for the climate equilibrium between 3 and 4 degrees Celsius, while judging the occurrence of a real disaster much more likely than the previous report predicts.
Subjects: 
Revealed prior
climate sensitivity
IPCC
JEL: 
C11
Q54
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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