Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/233009 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
GLO Discussion Paper No. 819
Publisher: 
Global Labor Organization (GLO), Essen
Abstract: 
This study examines the consequences of relaxing birth quotas by exploiting an exogenous two-child policy adopted by local Chinese governments on different dates. Using China's 2015 population census combined with a difference-in-differences framework, we find that the adoption of a two-child policy substantially increases the number of second-child births. The impact of the policy is more pronounced among couples who have higher fertility preferences and who are less sensitive to child-rearing costs. At the same time, this policy substantially decreases the number of first-child births. Child-rearing costs are a likely underlying mechanism for this decrease. All of these findings are in line with an extended Barro-Becker model.
Subjects: 
two-child policy
fertility preferences
child-rearing cost
childbearing decision
China
JEL: 
J13
J18
H23
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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