Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/232453 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 8856
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
A common narrative is that COVID-19 cost Trump re-election. We do not find supporting evidence; if anything, the pandemic helped Trump. However, we find substantial evidence that voters abandoned Trump in counties with large increases in health insurance coverage since the Affordable Care Act, presumably fearing the roll-back of such expansion. Absent this effect, our estimates imply Trump would been on the precipice of re-election by winning Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and only losing Wisconsin by a few thousand votes. Finally, while US trade war tariffs boosted Trump’s support, foreign trade war tariffs and US agricultural subsidies had little effect.
Subjects: 
2020 US Presidential election
Covid-19
Affordable Care Act
health insurance coverage
trade war
political economy
trade policy
JEL: 
D72
F13
F14
I18
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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