Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/232430 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 8833
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
We use the US presidential election on 3 November 2020 to examine how the US president influences economic expectations of international experts. We design a large-scale RCT among 843 experts working in 107 countries, asking about their expectations regarding GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, and trade in their country. The sample is split randomly in two subsamples. Half of the participants were surveyed closely before the election, the other half directly after Joe Biden had been called US president. Our results show that the election of Joe Biden increased growth expectations of international experts by 0.98 percentage points for the year 2021. We also find that (i) treatment effects materialize only in the short-run and (ii) experts’ uncertainty increased after the election. Our results suggest that exceptional politicians influence global economic outcomes.
Subjects: 
US presidential elections
politicians
economic expectations
economic experts
Randomized Controlled Trial
causal inference
JEL: 
A11
D72
O11
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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