Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/232255 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2021
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Kiel Working Paper No. 2138
Versionsangabe: 
This Draft: March 21, 2021
Verlag: 
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), Kiel
Zusammenfassung: 
Bilateral trade balances often play an important role in the international trade policy debate. Disturbingly, several studies argue that the gravity model of trade fails when confronted with bilateral trade balances data, dubbing this "The Mystery of the Excess Trade Balances". Capitalizing on developments in the related literature, we solve the mystery and show that the gravity model explains bilateral trade balances well. We also uncover a new property of the structural multilateral resistances as asymmetric trade costs. This is exactly what solves the mystery. Our analysis suggests that, on average, there is little room for trade cost asymmetries due to 'unfair' policies to lead to bilateral trade imbalances. However, we also identify sectors (e.g., Mining and Services), where the modeling of the direct bilateral trade costs in the gravity model can be improved, including the possibility for 'unfair'/asymmetric policies to play a more significant role.
Schlagwörter: 
Trade Imbalances
Structural Gravity Estimation
JEL: 
F1
F13
F14
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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