Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/232056
Authors: 
Floris, Joël
Kaiser, Laurent
Mayr, Harald
Staub, Kaspar
Woitek, Ulrich
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper No. 316
Abstract: 
Estimates of the effect of fetal health shocks may suffer from survivorship bias. The fetal origins literature seemingly agrees that survivorship bias is innocuous in the sense that it induces a bias toward zero. Arguably, however, selective mortality can imply a bias away from zero. In the case of the 1918 flu pandemic, a suppressed immune system may have been protective against the most severe consequences of infection. We use historical birth records from the maternity hospital of Bern, Switzerland, to evaluate this possibility. Our results suggest that a careful consideration of survivorship bias is imperative for the evaluation of the 1918 flu pandemic and other fetal health shocks.
Subjects: 
Fetal origins hypothesis
1918 flu pandemic
culling
survivorship bias
Pandemie
Grippe
Pränatale Entwicklung
Langfristige Analyse
Sterblichkeit
Sozialstatus
Schweiz
JEL: 
I10
I15
I18
N34
J24
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size
433.84 kB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.