Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/231437 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
GLO Discussion Paper No. 790
Publisher: 
Global Labor Organization (GLO), Essen
Abstract: 
The recent literature on the determinants of populism has highlighted the role of long-term trends of progressive isolation and prolonged economic stagnation in engendering discontent and, in turn, demand for political change. We investigate, instead, the potential of unanticipated local shocks in shaping the ‘geography of discontent’. Using comprehensive data at a fine spatial scale and a comparative natural experiment approach, we document that the occurrence of two destructive earthquakes in Italy resulted in sharply diverging electoral outcomes: while the 2012 Emilia quake did not alter voting behaviour, the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake paved the way for an impressive and persistent surge in right-wing populism in the most affected areas. Such heterogeneous patterns mainly originate from a stark contrast in post-disaster reconstruction processes and shifts in institutional trust. Our findings are consistent with the idea that not only “places that don’t matter”, but also “places that don’t recover”, can become populist hotbeds.
Subjects: 
elections
populism
discontent
natural disasters
earthquakes
JEL: 
D72
H12
Q54
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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