Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/230734
Authors: 
Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan
Fengler, Matthias R.
Härdle, Wolfgang Karl
Liu, Yanchu
Year of Publication: 
2018
Series/Report no.: 
IRTG 1792 Discussion Paper No. 2018-023
Abstract: 
We distill sentiment from a huge assortment of NASDAQ news articles by means of machine learning methods and examine its predictive power in single-stock option markets and equity markets. We provide evidence that single-stock options react to contemporaneous sentiment. Next, examining return predictability, we discover that while option variables indeed predict stock returns, sentiment variables add further informational content. In fact, both in a regression and a trading context, option variables orthogonalized to public and sentimental news are even more informative predictors of stock returns. Distinguishing further between overnight and trading-time news, we find the first to be more informative. From a statistical topic model, we uncover that this is attributable to the differing thematic coverage of the alternate archives. Finally, we show that sentiment disagreement commands a strong positive risk premium above and beyond market volatility and that lagged returns predict future returns in concentrated sentiment environments.
Subjects: 
investor disagreement
option markets
overnight information
stock return predictability
textual sentiment
topic model
trading-time information
JEL: 
C58
G12
G14
G41
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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