Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/230422 
Year of Publication: 
2018
Series/Report no.: 
Cardiff Economics Working Papers No. E2018/16
Publisher: 
Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Cardiff
Abstract: 
This paper explores the world business cycle using unfiltered data from 1870 and looks for a theory that could account for the long wave commodity cycle in the world economy. We build a simple DSGE model that includes a long time-to-build constraint in the commodity sector. We find that this model can produce long cycles in output and commodity prices as introduced by Kontradieff (1925) and Schumpeter (1935). Our findings show that these long business cycles are produced by the long gestation of commodity capacity which causes very large swings in commodity prices.
Subjects: 
Longwaves
commodities
DSGE model
Indirect Inference
JEL: 
E10
E32
E52
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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