Bianchi, Francesco Melosi, Leonardo Rottner, Matthias
Year of Publication:
Working Paper No. 2019-07
Since the 2001 recession, average core inflation has been below the Federal Reserve's 2% target. This deflationary bias is a predictable consequence of a low nominal interest rates environment. When monetary policy faces the risk of encountering the zero lower bound, in.ation tends to remain persistently below the central bank's target, even if monetary policy is currently not constrained. The deflationary bias increases if macroeconomic uncertainty rises or the natural real interest rate falls. An asymmetric rule according to which the central bank accepts longer periods of in.ation above target corrects the bias and brings inflation back on target. Adopting this asymmetric rule improves welfare and reduces the risk of self-fulfilling deflationary spirals.