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Ötting, Marius
Langrock, Roland
Deutscher, Christian
Leos‐Barajas, Vianey
Year of Publication: 
[Journal:] Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) [ISSN:] 1467-985X [Volume:] 183 [Issue:] 2 [Pages:] 565-580
We investigate the hot hand hypothesis in professional darts in a nearly ideal setting with minimal to no interaction between players. Considering almost 1 year of tournament data, corresponding to 167492 dart throws in total, we use state space models to investigate serial dependence in throwing performance. In our models, a latent state process serves as a proxy for a player's underlying form, and we use auto‐regressive processes to model how this process evolves over time. Our results regarding the persistence of the latent process indicate a weak hot hand effect, but the evidence is inconclusive.
Hidden Markov model
Hot hand
Sports statistics
State space model
Time series
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