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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2020
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 8791
Verlag: 
Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Zusammenfassung: 
We demonstrate that the impact of increases in uncertainty on bank credit conditions depends on the level of uncertainty. Using firm-level survey data, we document that a surge in business-specific uncertainty is particularly damaging when this uncertainty is low: low levels nearly triple the effect compared to high levels. The result is robust to controlling for recessionary periods. To provide an interpretation, we build and calibrate a stylized model in which bank lending is governed by expectations about the future level of business uncertainty. Increases in uncertainty serve as a signal to update these expectations. The model predicts that expectations are revised more strongly and, thus, lending drops more under low uncertainty.
Schlagwörter: 
uncertainty
financial frictions
bank lending
survey data
JEL: 
C23
E32
G21
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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