Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/229328 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2020
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
WIDER Working Paper No. 2020/104
Verlag: 
The United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), Helsinki
Zusammenfassung: 
Modelling the underlying long-run trend of metal prices is important, given that selected metals are a source of income for many countries. However, estimating the underlying trend has proven to be difficult, given the persistence and volatility of primary commodity prices-metals are no exception. Recent events have led experts to believe that trends have been undergoing large swings; whether these movements are temporary or contribute to the trend being characterized by broken piecewise trends over certain lengths of time remains a contentious issue. We combine robust econometric procedures to calculate the trend, which could be secular or broken, for selected metal prices over a century. We find support for the conjecture that, based on the unpredictable shifts in demand, extraction costs, and discovery of reserves, it is highly possible to expect that prices may be subject to large variability that overshadows any underlying trend.
Schlagwörter: 
trends
metal prices
volatility
persistence
JEL: 
C22
Q02
Q32
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
ISBN: 
978-92-9256-861-0
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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