Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/229115 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2020
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
ECB Working Paper No. 2501
Verlag: 
European Central Bank (ECB), Frankfurt a. M.
Zusammenfassung: 
We compare direct forecasts of HICP and HICP excluding energy and food in the euro area and five member countries to aggregated forecasts of their main components from large Bayesian VARs with a shared set of predictors. We focus on conditional point and density forecasts, in line with forecasting practices at many policy institutions. Our main findings are that point forecasts perform similarly using both approaches, whereas directly forecasting aggregate indices tends to yield better density forecasts. In the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, relative forecasting performance was typically only affected temporarily. Inflation forecasts made by Eurosystem/ECB staff perform similarly or slightly better than those from our models for the euro area.
Schlagwörter: 
aggregation
inflation forecasting
Bayesian VAR model
JEL: 
C11
C32
C53
E37
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
ISBN: 
978-92-899-4447-2
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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