Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/229080
Authors: 
De Santis, Roberto A.
Van der Veken, Wouter
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
ECB Working Paper No. 2466
Abstract: 
We characterise the distribution of expected GDP growth during the Great Influenza Pandemic (known also as Spanish Flu) using a non-linear method in a country panel setting. We show that there are non-negligible risks of large GDP losses with the 5% left tail of the distribution suggesting a drop in the typical country's real per capita GDP equal to 29.1% in 1918, 10.9% in 1919 and 3.6% in 1920. Moreover, the fall in per capita GDP after the Spanish flu was on average particularly large in low-income countries. Particularly, the size of the GDP drop in the lower tail of the distributions is high for higher income countries and immense for lower income countries. As for the United States, the estimated size of the recession in the lower tail of the distribution following the Spanish flu is not negligible.
Subjects: 
Spanish flu
Pandemic disease
Macroeconomic risks
Non-linear models
JEL: 
E3
I0
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
ISBN: 
978-92-899-4383-3
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size
806.93 kB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.