Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/229038
Authors: 
Müller, Tobias
Christoffel, Kai
Mazelis, Falk
Montes-Galdón, Carlos
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
ECB Working Paper No. 2424
Abstract: 
Forward guidance operates via the expectations formation process of the agents in the economy. In standard quantitative macroeconomic models, the expectations are unobserved state variables and little scrutiny is devoted to analysing the dynamic behaviour of these expectations. We show that the introduction of survey and financial market-based forecasts in the estimation of the model disciplines the expectations formation process in DSGE models. When the model-implied expectations are matched to observed expectations, the additional information of the forecasts restrains the agents' expectations formation. We argue that the reduced volatility of the agents' expectations dampens the model reactions to forward guidance shocks and improves the out-of-sample forecast accuracy of the model. Furthermore, we evaluate the case for introducing a discount factor as a reduced form proxy for a variety of microfounded approaches, proposed to mitigate the forward guidance puzzle. Once data on expectations is considered, the empirical support to introduce a discount factor dissipates.
Subjects: 
Expectations Formation
Monetary Policy
Bayesian Estimation
Forecasting
DSGE Models
JEL: 
C13
C52
E3
E47
E52
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
ISBN: 
978-92-899-4067-2
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.