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Autor:innen: 
Gonzalez-Eiras, Martín
Niepelt, Dirk
Datum: 
2020
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Discussion Papers No. 20-08
Verlag: 
University of Bern, Department of Economics, Bern
Zusammenfassung: 
We embed a lockdown choice in a simplified epidemiological model and derive formulas for the optimal lockdown intensity and duration. The optimal policy re- ects the rate of time preference, epidemiological factors, the hazard rate of vaccine discovery, learning effects in the health care sector, and the severity of output losses due to a lockdown. In our baseline specification a Covid-19 shock as currently expe- rienced by the US optimally triggers a reduction in economic activity by two thirds, for about 50 days, or approximately 9:5 percent of annual GDP.
Schlagwörter: 
Epidemic
pandemic
lockdown
social distancing
production shortfall
health care system
Covid-19
SIR model
logistic model
JEL: 
I18
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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