Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/228156
Authors: 
Bottazzi, Giulio
Cordoni, Francesco
Livieri, Giulia
Marmi, Stefano
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
LEM Working Paper Series No. 2020/17
Abstract: 
This paper presents two stocks recommendation systems based on a stochastic characterization of firm present value that extends the conventional discounted cash flow analysis. In the Single-Stock Quantile recommendation system, the market price of a company's stocks is compared with the estimated distribution of the company fair value to obtain an individual measure of mispricing, while in the Cross-Sectional Quantile system, a relative measure of mispricing is built using the fair value distribution of all firms at the same time. Both systems use mispricing information to build sell side and buy side portfolios. We provide a series of statistical exercises that show how these portfolios can consistently deliver significant excess returns, also when rebalancing costs are accounted for.
Subjects: 
Stochastic Discounted Cash Flow
Asset Valuation
Valuation Uncertainty
Portfolio Strategy
JEL: 
G11
G17
G32
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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