Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/228086
Authors: 
Koécenda, Evézen
Poghosyan, Karen
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
IES Working Paper No. 05/2020
Abstract: 
We analyze the performance of a broad range of nowcasting and short-term forecasting models for a representative set of twelve old and six new member countries of the European Union (EU) that are characterized by substantial differences in aggregate output variability. In our analysis, we generate ex-post out-of-sample nowcasts and forecasts based on hard and soft indicators that come from a comparable set of identical data. We show that nowcasting works well for the new EU countries because, although that variability in their GDP growth data is larger than that of the old EU economies, the economic significance of nowcasting is on average somewhat larger.
Subjects: 
Bayesian VAR
dynamic and static principal components
European OECD countries
factor augmented VAR
nowcasting
real GDP growth
short-term forecasting
JEL: 
C33
C38
C52
C53
E37
E52
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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