Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/227324
Authors: 
Bognanni, Mark
Hanley, Doug
Kolliner, Daniel
Mitman, Kurt
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
IZA Discussion Papers No. 13797
Abstract: 
Economic analysis of effective policies for managing epidemics requires an integrated economic and epidemiological approach. We develop and estimate a spatial, micro-founded model of the joint evolution of economic variables and the spread of an epidemic. We empirically discipline the model using new U.S. county-level data on health, mobility, employment outcomes, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) at a daily frequency. Absent policy or medical interventions, the model predicts an initial period of exponential growth in new cases, followed by a protracted period of roughly constant case levels and reduced economic activity. Nevertheless, if vaccine development proved impossible, and suppression cannot entirely eradicate the disease, a utilitarian policymaker cannot improve significantly over the laissez-faire equilibrium by using lockdowns. Conversely, if a vaccine will arrive within two years, NPIs can improve upon the laissez-faire outcome by dramatically decreasing the number of infectious agents and keeping infections low until vaccine arrival. Mitigation measures that reduce viral transmission (e.g., mask-wearing) both reduce the virus's spread and increase economic activity.
Subjects: 
Econ-SIR
COVID-19
economic policy
epidemics
JEL: 
E1
H0
I18
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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