Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/226467 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2016
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Working Papers on Population, Family and Welfare No. 24
Verlag: 
Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, Budapest
Zusammenfassung: 
In a simple cohort model we carry out a projection based on current per capita age profiles of labour income and consumption and combine them with Hungary's expected future age composition. We use 2012 Hungarian data. Due to a shrinking and ageing population this exercise predicts a growing gap between labour income and consumption in Hungary, which will  have to be covered by asset-based revenues. We apply two balancing items: a windfall capital endowment in the base year, and gradual capital accumulation through higher savings. We also quantify how much the household economy, an integral but unregistered part of a modern economy, can absorb the effects of ageing. In addition, we test against a model using  demographic data from 1995. The two decades between the mid-1990s and the mid-2010s offered a special demographic opportunity for Hungary and coincided with the botched prefunding experiment in the public pension system. We demonstrate the potential of this missed opportunity.
Schlagwörter: 
macroeconomic consequences of demographic trends
National Transfer Accounts
unpaid household labour
pension reform
JEL: 
N33
ISBN: 
978-963-9597-39-6
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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