Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/224642
Authors: 
Goemans, Pascal
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2020: Gender Economics
Abstract: 
We investigate whether US government spending multipliers are higher during periods of heightened uncertainty or economic slack as opposed to normal times. Using quarterly historical data and local projections, we estimate a cumulative one-year multiplier of 2 during uncertain periods. In contrast, the multiplier is about 1 in times of high unemployment and about 0:5 - 0:7 during normal times. While we find positive employment effects in economic slack as in uncertain times, two transmission channels can explain the higher multipliers in the latter: greater price exibility leading to short run in ation (lowering the real interest rate) and diminishing risk premiums.
Subjects: 
Fiscal policy
government spending
fiscal multiplier
uncertainty
economic slack
local projections
historical data
JEL: 
E62
Document Type: 
Conference Paper

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