Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/22434
Authors: 
Beckmann, Daniela
Menkhoff, Lukas
Sawischlewski, Katja
Year of Publication: 
2005
Series/Report no.: 
Diskussionspapiere des Fachbereichs Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Universität Hannover 322
Abstract: 
Early warning systems (EWSs) are subject to restrictions that apply to exchange rates in general: fundamentals matter but their influence is small and unstable. Despite this limitation four major lessons emerge: First, EWSs have robust forecasting power and thus help policy-makers to prevent crises. Second, policy-makers must decide about some EWSs' elements, such as the sensitivity of the forecasts. Third, EWSs' performance is increased by taking a logit model, shorter samples and a regional approach. Fourth, the finding of contagion may motivate policy to shield its economy against inefficient international financial markets.
Subjects: 
early warning system
currency crises
emerging markets
JEL: 
F31
F37
F33
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size
185.75 kB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.