Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/224113 
Autor:innen: 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2019
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Working Paper No. 2019:9
Verlag: 
Uppsala University, Department of Economics, Uppsala
Zusammenfassung: 
This paper assesses to what extent forecasters make effcient use of competitors' forecasts. Usinga panel of forecasters, I find that forecasters underuse information from their competitors in their forecasts for current and next year's annual GDP growth and inflation. The results also show that forecasters increase the attention to their competitors as the forecast horizon decreases. In a model of noisy information with fixed target forecasts, I confirm the empirical results of underuse of competitors' information. I also extend the model to include a revision cost and show how this can explain the observed ineffciency and observed horizon dynamics. Using the same model framework, I also rule out overconfidence as the main explanation of the observed behavior.
Schlagwörter: 
Forecast Behavior
Efficiency
Revision Cost
Forecast Smoothing
Overconfidence
JEL: 
C53
D82
E17
E37
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

Datei(en):
Datei
Größe
808.04 kB





Publikationen in EconStor sind urheberrechtlich geschützt.