Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/223887
Authors: 
Kettlewell, Nathan
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
IZA Discussion Papers No. 13445
Abstract: 
I evaluate the accuracy of people's subjective probability expectations for using various health services. Subjective expectations closely reflect patterns of observed utilization, are predicted by the same covariates as observed utilization, and correlate with objective measures of risk. At the same time, observable characteristics like age and health are weakly predictive of service demand. Through a series of examples, I demonstrate how subjective expectations can provide new insights about health behavior, specifically in the areas of asymmetric information, moral hazard and estimating welfare attributable to private care. The findings support collecting subjective expectations about health services in household surveys for use in applied research.
Subjects: 
subjective expectations
beliefs
subjective probabilities
health insurance
healthcare demand
JEL: 
D82
D84
I11
I12
I13
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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