Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/223758
Authors: 
Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina
Borra, Cristina
Rivera Garrido, Noelia
Sevilla, Almudena
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
IZA Discussion Papers No. 13316
Abstract: 
In an effort to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries around the globe adopted social distancing measures. Previous studies have relied on the geographical and temporal variation in the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to show that early adoption of NPIs is correlated to lower infection and mortality rates. However, due to the non-random adoption of NPIs, the findings may not be interpreted as causal. We address this limitation using a different source of identification –namely, the regional variation in the placement on the pandemic curve at the time of a nationwide lockdown. Our results reveal how, relative to regions for which the lockdown arrived 10+ days after the pandemic's outbreak, regions where the outbreak had just started were able to lower their daily fatality rate by 2.5 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. We also provide suggestive evidence of contagion deceleration as the main mechanism behind the effectiveness of the early adoption of NPIs in lowering the death rate, rather than increased healthcare capacity.
Subjects: 
COVID-19
coronavirus
lockdown
mortality
Spain
JEL: 
J10
I12
I18
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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