Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour" No. 19
I use textual data to model German professional macroeconomic forecasters' information sets and use machine-learning techniques to analyze the efficiency of forecasts. To this end, I extract information from forecast reports using a combination of topic models and word embeddings. I then use this information and traditional macroeconomic predictors to study the efficiency of investment forecasts.
Forecast Efficiency Investment Random Forest Topic Modeling