Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/223192
Authors: 
Horn, Sebastian
Reinhart, Carmen M.
Trebesch, Christoph
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour" No. 11
Abstract: 
Compared with China's pre-eminent status in world trade, its role in global finance is poorly understood. This paper studies the size, characteristics, and determinants of China's capital exports building a new database of 5000 loans and grants to 152 countries, 1949-2017. We find that 50% of China's lending to developing countries is not reported to the IMF or World Bank. These "hidden debts" distort policy surveillance, risk pricing, and debt sustainability analyses. Since China's overseas lending is almost entirely official (state-controlled), the standard "push" and "pull" drivers of private cross-border flows do not apply in the same way.
Subjects: 
China
trade finance
external debt
international capital flows
official lending
hidden debts
sovereign risk
Belt and Road initiative
JEL: 
F21
F34
F42
F6
G15
H63
N25
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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