Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/220041
Authors: 
Gorgi, Paolo
Koopman, Siem Jan
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. TI 2020-004/III
Abstract: 
We consider a general class of observation-driven models with exogenous regressors for double bounded data that are based on the beta distribution. We obtain a stationary and ergodic beta observation-driven process subject to a contraction condition on the stochastic dynamic model equation. We derive conditions for strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator. The general results are used to study the properties of a beta autoregressive process with threshold effects and to establish the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator. We employ the threshold autoregressive model with leverage effects to analyze realized correlations for several sets of stock returns. We find that the impact of past values of realized correlation on future values is at least 10% higher when stock returns are negative rather than positive. This finding supports the conjecture that correlation between stock returns tends to be higher when stock prices are falling, and lower when there is a surge in stock prices. Finally, we conduct an out-of-sample study that shows that our model with leverage effects can enhance the accuracy of point and density forecasts of realized correlations.
Subjects: 
Double bounded time series
financial econometrics
leverage effects
observation- driven models
realized correlation
JEL: 
C32
C52
C58
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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