Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/219113 
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 8295
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
Epidemiological models assume gravity-like interactions of individuals across space without microfoundations. We combine a simple epidemiological frame-work with a dynamic model of individual location choice. The model predicts that flows of people across space obey a structural gravity equation. By means of an application to data from Great Britain we show that our structural-gravity framework: provides a rationale for quarantines; offers a clear mapping from observed geography to the spread of a disease; and makes it possible to evaluate the welfare impact of (expected and unexpected) mobility restrictions in the face of a deadly epidemic.
Subjects: 
epidemics
Covid-19
gravity
regional mobility
JEL: 
E65
F14
F17
J61
R23
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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