Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/218982
Authors: 
Kholodilin, Konstantin A.
Rieth, Malte
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
DIW Discussion Papers 1861
Abstract: 
We construct a news-based viral disease index and study the dynamic impact of epidemics on the world economy, using structural vector autoregressions. Epidemic shocks have persistently negative effects, both directly and indirectly, on affected countries and on world output. The shocks lead to a significant fall in global trade, employment, and consumer prices for three quarters, and the losses are permanent. In contrast, retail sales increase. Country studies suggest that the direct effects are four times larger than the indirect effects and that demand-side dominate supply-side contractions. Overall, the findings indicate that expansionary macroeconomic policy is an appropriate crisis response.
Subjects: 
Coronavirus
Covid 19
text analysis
world economy
structural vector autoregressions
epidemics
JEL: 
C32
E32
F44
I18
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.