Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/21881
Authors: 
Audretsch, David B.
Stadtmann, Georg
Year of Publication: 
2005
Series/Report no.: 
Research notes working paper series 19
Abstract: 
In this paper, we use the Wall Street Journal poll of FX forecasts to analyze how the group of forecasters form their expectations. One focus is whether forecasters build rational expectations. Furthermore, we analyze whether the group of forecasters can be regarded as homogeneous or heterogeneous. The results from our regressions strongly suggest that some forecasters combine different models of exchange rate forecasting, while others rely solely on one model. We also find evidence that some forecasters underly a bias, while others do not. Overall, our regression results indicate a high degree of heterogeneity. In conclusion, we show that the expectation formation process is not the same among all economists polled. Our findings carry importance for macroeconomic modelling: The assumption of rational agents forming homogeneous expectations is not supported by our results.
Subjects: 
Foreign exchange market
forecast bias
random walk
JEL: 
C33
D84
F31
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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