Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/217675 
Year of Publication: 
2019
Citation: 
[Journal:] Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice [ISSN:] 2336-9205 [Volume:] 8 [Issue:] 2 [Publisher:] De Gruyter Open [Place:] Warsaw [Year:] 2019 [Pages:] 65-83
Publisher: 
De Gruyter Open, Warsaw
Abstract: 
The foreign exchange reserves of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) countries have decreased since the fall of world oil price that began in July 2014. In fact, five of the six of the CEMAC countries are oil producers. Based on interrupted time series modeling, the analysis shows that the unanticipated changes in oil prices immediately led to a decline in the level of their foreign exchange reserves. The trend is also decreasing. The model predicts a continued degradation of these reserves if oil prices remain low. In these conditions, the CEMAC could experience a currency crisis if economic policies implemented in this region do not lead to a return of economic growth.
Subjects: 
oil prices
CEMAC countries
foreign exchange reserves
interrupted time series analysis.
JEL: 
E4
E5
E6
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by-nc-nd Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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