Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/217333 
Year of Publication: 
2019
Citation: 
[Journal:] Central Bank Review (CBR) [ISSN:] 1303-0701 [Volume:] 19 [Issue:] 2 [Publisher:] Elsevier [Place:] Amsterdam [Year:] 2019 [Pages:] 33-43
Publisher: 
Elsevier, Amsterdam
Abstract: 
Measuring and monitoring inflation uncertainty is an essential ingredient of monetary policy analysis. This study constructs survey measures of inflation uncertainty for the Turkish economy. Using density and point inflation forecasts in the CBRT Survey of Expectations, we derive various uncertainty measures through standard deviation, entropy, and disagreement among forecasters. Our results suggest that survey-based inflation uncertainty measures are broadly consistent with market-implied indicators of inflation risk. Moreover, we find that an increase in observed inflation is associated with higher inflation uncertainty across all empirical specifications.
Subjects: 
Inflation uncertainty
Inflation
Survey data
Disagreement
Density forecasts
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by-nc-nd Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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