Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/217224 
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
BoF Economics Review No. 4/2020
Publisher: 
Bank of Finland, Helsinki
Abstract: 
We analyse the performance of financial market variables in nowcasting Finnish quarterly GDP growth. Especially, we assess if prediction accuracy is affected by the sampling frequency of the financial variables. Therefore, we apply MIDAS models that allow us to forecast quarterly GDP growth using monthly or daily data without temporal aggregation in a parsimonious way. Our results show that financial market data nowcasts Finnish GDP growth relatively well. When it comes to individual variables, ratios like average price-to-earnings, average price-to-book or average dividend yield track GDP growth well. Our results suggest that the sampling frequency of financial market variables is not crucial: the forecasting accuracy of daily, monthly and quarterly data is similar.
Subjects: 
MIDAS
Nowcasting
Financial markets
GDP
JEL: 
E44
G00
E37
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Research Report

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