Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/217121
Authors: 
Hyytinen, Ari
Meriläinen, Jaakko
Saarimaa, Tuukka
Toivanen, Otto
Tukiainen, Janne
Year of Publication: 
2018
Citation: 
[Journal:] Quantitative Economics [ISSN:] 1759-7331 [Volume:] 9 [Year:] 2018 [Issue:] 2 [Pages:] 1019-1051
Abstract: 
We use elections data in which a large number of ties in vote counts between candidates are resolved via a lottery to study the personal incumbency advantage. We benchmark non-experimental regression discontinuity design (RDD) estimates against the estimate produced by this experiment that takes place exactly at the cutoff. The experimental estimate suggests that there is no personal incumbency advantage. In contrast, conventional local polynomial RDD estimates suggest a moderate and statistically significant effect. Bias-corrected RDD estimates that apply robust inference are, however, in line with the experimental estimate. Therefore, state-of-the-art implementation of RDD can meet the replication standard in the context of close elections.
Subjects: 
Close elections
experiment
incumbency advantage
regression discontinuity design
JEL: 
C21
C52
D72
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/
Document Type: 
Article

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.