Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/217033
Authors: 
Baumeister, Christiane
Korobilis, Dimitris
Lee, Thomas K.
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper 8282
Abstract: 
This paper evaluates alternative indicators of global economic activity and other market fundamentals in terms of their usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. We find that world industrial production is one of the most useful indicators that has been proposed in the literature. However, by combining measures from a number of different sources we can do even better. Our analysis results in a new index of global economic conditions and new measures for assessing future tightness of energy demand and expected oil price pressures.
Subjects: 
energy demand
forecasting
stochastic volatility
oil price pressures
petroleum consumption
JEL: 
C11
C32
C52
Q41
Q47
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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