Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/216594 
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 8198
Publisher: 
Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo), Munich
Abstract: 
This paper empirically investigates the propagation of fims' expectations within the European Union (EU). To this end, we combine EU-wide official business survey data with world input-output data. Econometrically, we model interdependencies in economic activities via input-output-linkages and apply space-time models with common factors. The resulting evidence provides indication for the existence of substantial spillovers in expectation formation. They are transmitted both upstream and downstream the European value chain, but the latter channel matters more.
Subjects: 
business expectation formation
propagation
input-output linkages
spillovers
space-time model
JEL: 
C23
D84
E70
L14
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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