Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/216578
Authors: 
Briscese, Guglielmo
Lacetera, Nicola
Macis, Mario
Tonin, Mirco
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
CESifo Working Paper No. 8182
Abstract: 
We study how intentions to comply with the self-isolation restrictions introduced in Italy to mitigate the COVID-19 epidemic respond to the length of their possible extension. Based on a survey of a representative sample of Italian residents (N=894), we find that respondents who are positively surprised by a given hypothetical extension (i.e. the extension is shorter than what they expected) are more willing to increase their self-isolation. In contrast, negative surprises (extensions longer than expected) are associated with a lower willingness to comply. In a context where individual compliance has collective benefits, but full enforcement is costly and controversial, communication and persuasion have a fundamental role. Our findings provide insights to public authorities on how to announce lockdown measures and manage people's expectations.
Subjects: 
COVID-19
social distancing
expectations
JEL: 
C42
D91
H12
H41
I12
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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