Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/215650 
Year of Publication: 
2017
Series/Report no.: 
CEAMeS Discussion Paper No. 8/2017
Publisher: 
University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS), Hagen
Abstract: 
China has been growing at high rates during the previous three decades. The current process of rebalancing from an investment- and manufacturing-led growth model towards a consumption- and service-led model is associated with decreasing growth rates. We show that China's current state of structural change in terms of sectoral employment shares is similar to the historical developments in Japan and South Korea. We derive plausible scenarios for future growth rates in China and (by isolating the allocation effect, i.e. the pure effect of structural change) look at the effects of tertiarization on economic growth in China for the period 2016 until 2030 by applying a simple simulation study.
Subjects: 
structural change
China
South Korea
Japan
economic development
tertiarization
rebalancing
JEL: 
O1
O4
P5
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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