Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/214743
Authors: 
Grimme, Christian
Šauer, Radek
Wollmershäuser, Timo
Year of Publication: 
2019
Series/Report no.: 
ifo-Forschungsberichte 109
Abstract: 
Die vorliegende Kurzexpertise hat die Ursachen unterschiedlicher Formen eines Währungskonflikts und seine Auswirkungen auf die deutsche und europäische Wirtschaft beschrieben und quantifiziert. In der öffentlichen Debatte wird die Manipulation einer Währung meist anhand einer beobachteten Veränderung des Wechselkurses diagnostiziert. Dabei wird häufig übersehen, dass Wechselkurse auch auf wirtschaftspolitische Maßnahmen reagieren, die nicht mit dem Ziel beschlossen wurden, den Wechselkurs zu beeinflussen. Deshalb werden in der vorliegenden Kurzexpertise im Rahmen eines mikrofundierten und geschätzten DSGE-Modells für Deutschland, den restlichen Euroraum und die restliche Welt insgesamt acht Währungskonfliktszenarien simuliert, mit deren Hilfe zwischen einer gezielten Steuerung des Wechselkurses und einer endogenen Wechselkursreaktion unterschieden werden kann. [...]
Abstract (Translated): 
This expertise describes and quantifies the causes of various forms of currency manipulation and its effects on the German and European economy. The first part shows what is meant by a currency war. In public debate, the manipulation of a currency is usually diagnosed on the basis of an observed change in the exchange rate. However, it is often overlooked that exchange rates also react to economic policy measures that were not decided with the aim of influencing the exchange rate. These include, for example, the policy of quantitative easing in the USA and the euro zone, but also the trade conflict triggered by the USA. In the second part, eight scenarios of a possible currency conflict are simulated and their effects on the German and European economy are quantified using the ifo DSGE model. Overall, the effects are small. In particular, the effects of the introduction of permanent import tariffs in the rest of the world on real gross domestic product in the euro zone and on the external value of the euro are negligible in quantitative terms. By contrast, Germany in particular benefits in the short-run from a currency conflict in the rest of the world, which is initiated by an unexpected and temporary cut in policy rates of these central banks. The results are similar if the central banks in the rest of the world use the exchange rate directly as an instrument and devalue their currency against the euro. The most significant short-term effects occur in a competitive devaluation, in which the ECB reacts to the trade and currency conflict initiated in the rest of the world with a cut in policy rates, which counteracts the appreciation of the euro.
ISBN: 
978-3-95942-077-8
Additional Information: 
Kurzexpertise für das Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie Projekt Nr. 45/19 (Az. 23305/003).
Document Type: 
Research Report

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