Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/214518 
Year of Publication: 
2012
Series/Report no.: 
CREMA Working Paper No. 2012-14
Publisher: 
Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA), Basel
Abstract: 
Unrealistic optimism is a commonly observed bias in the perception of chances. In this paper, we examine whether the bias is also present among young elite soccer players (10 to 23 years old) who receive regular objective feedback through external assessments. Utilising a large unique data set of almost 1600 individuals allows us to explore the empirical validation of the ipsative theory of human behaviour. In particular, we analyse how factors such as age or experience, education, peer group performance, and the level of integration into culture exert influence over young elite athletes' perceived chance of becoming a professional player. Working with a homogeneous dataset of individuals possessing similar characteristics and professional goals allows us to control for and isolate (unobserved) factors that may shape perceptions.
Subjects: 
Perception of chances
unrealistic optimism
ipsative possibility set
integration effects
soccer
JEL: 
L83
D81
D03
J15
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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