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dc.contributor.authorFrijters, Paulen
dc.contributor.authorHaisken-DeNew, John P.en
dc.contributor.authorShields, Michael A.en
dc.date.accessioned2009-01-28T16:22:27Z-
dc.date.available2009-01-28T16:22:27Z-
dc.date.issued2002-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/21442-
dc.description.abstractIn this paper we test the Rational Expectations hypothesis using longitudinal data on expectations and realizations of individual welfare for East Germans in the years following reunification. German reunification was unexpected and delivered a large shock to the future prospects of the inhabitants of the former East Germany. We therefore take it as a 'natural' experiment through which to study the rationality of expectations. Our results show that EastGermans significantly over-estimated the welfare gains immediately following reunification. The prediction error was largest for the young, the poorly educated and those with children. However, expectations and realizations of life satisfaction in East Germany had converged by 1995, at a level considerably below that of West Germans. We hence conclude thatexpectations were close to rational after the dust of reunification had settled, but that expectations are not likely to be rational in times of great transition or volatility.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aInstitute for the Study of Labor (IZA) |cBonnen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aIZA Discussion Papers |x498en
dc.subject.jelZ1en
dc.subject.jelI31en
dc.subject.jelC25en
dc.subject.jelC23en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordwelfareen
dc.subject.keywordlife satisfactionen
dc.subject.keywordrational expectationsen
dc.subject.keywordlearningen
dc.subject.keywordGerman reunificationen
dc.subject.stwLebensstandarden
dc.subject.stwLebensqualitäten
dc.subject.stwRationale Erwartungen
dc.subject.stwLernprozeßen
dc.subject.stwSchätzungen
dc.subject.stwNeue Bundesländeren
dc.subject.stwNationale Einheiten
dc.subject.stwDeutschlanden
dc.subject.stwLebenszufriedenheiten
dc.titleIndividual Rationality and Learning: Welfare Expectations in East Germany Post-Reunification-
dc.typeWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn845569325en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen

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