Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/213484
Year of Publication: 
2019
Series/Report no.: 
IRENE Working Paper No. 19-09
Publisher: 
University of Neuchâtel, Institute of Economic Research (IRENE), Neuchâtel
Abstract: 
We study the capacity to meet food demand under conditions of climate change, economic and population growth. We take a novel approach to quantifying climate impacts, based on a model of the global economy structurally estimated on the period 1960 to 2015. The model integrates several features necessary to study the problem, including an explicit agriculture sector, endogenous fertility, directed technical change and fossil/renewable energy. We estimate the world economy is more than one trillion dollars smaller, and world population more than 80 million smaller, than would have been the case without climate change. This is despite substantial adaptation having taken place in general equilibrium through R&D and agricultural land expansion. Policy experiments with the model suggest that optimal GHG taxes are high and future temperatures held well below 2 degrees Celsius.
Subjects: 
adaptation
agricultural productivity
climate change
directed technical change
energy
food security
economic growth
population growth
structural estimation
JEL: 
C51
O13
O44
Q54
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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