Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/213140 
Year of Publication: 
2017
Citation: 
[Journal:] Intereconomics [ISSN:] 1613-964X [Volume:] 52 [Issue:] 4 [Publisher:] Springer [Place:] Heidelberg [Year:] 2017 [Pages:] 247-250
Publisher: 
Springer, Heidelberg
Abstract: 
Forecasts for the Chinese economy are often seen as unreliable. This impedes a proper assessment of the country’s course, and given that China is the world’s second-largest economy, it also has implications for international projections. This article examines the accuracy of real GDP forecasts by three international forecasters and two German forecasters over the period 1991-2015. While forecasters had considerable diffi culties in tracking the large upswings in China in the 1990s and early 2000s, they were quite accurate for the period 2004-2015, particularly when comparing the IMF’s forecasts for China with its forecasts for the United States or Germany. The forecast accuracy found in the Chinese Five-Year Plans is also surprisingly high.
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Article

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