Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/212822 
Year of Publication: 
2015
Series/Report no.: 
BOFIT Discussion Papers No. 12/2015
Publisher: 
Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT), Helsinki
Abstract: 
We propose the use of a local autoregressive (LAR) model for adaptive estimation and forecasting of three of China's key macroeconomic variables: GDP growth, inflation and the 7-day interbank lending rate. The approach takes into account possible structural changes in the data-generating process to select a local homogeneous interval for model estimation, and is particularly well-suited to a transition economy experiencing ongoing shifts in policy and structural adjustment. Our results indicate that the proposed method outperforms alternative models and forecast methods, especially for forecast horizons of 3 to 12 months. Our 1-quarter ahead adaptive forecasts even match the performance of the well-known CMRC Langrun survey forecast. The selected homogeneous intervals indicate gradual changes in growth of industrial production driven by constant evolution of the real economy in China, as well as abrupt changes in interestrate and inflation dynamics that capture monetary policy shifts.
JEL: 
E43
E47
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
ISBN: 
978-952-323-041-5
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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