Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/212283
Authors: 
Paloviita, Maritta
Virén, Matti
Year of Publication: 
2014
Series/Report no.: 
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers No. 8/2014
Abstract: 
This paper studies forecasts errors at the micro level using two alternative survey data sets. The main focus is on inflation and real GDP growth forecasts in the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. For comparison, inflation forecasts in the US Survey of Professional Forecasters are also examined. Our analysis indicates that forecast errors are positively related to the subjective uncertainties based on probability distributions, but not to disagreement (standard deviation of point forecasts). We also show that forecast errors, which are rather persistent, are related to forecast revisions. Revisions of expectations generally lead to larger forecast errors. Subjective uncertainty measures, which are available at the time of forecasting, are useful in assessing future forecast errors.
Subjects: 
Forecasting
Survey data
Expectations
JEL: 
C53
E37
E31
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
ISBN: 
978-952-6699-74-5
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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