Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/212275
Authors: 
Haavio, Markus
Mendicino, Caterina
Punzi, Maria Teresa
Year of Publication: 
2013
Series/Report no.: 
Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 35/2013
Abstract: 
This article empirically studies the linkages between financial variable downturns and economic recessions. We present evidence that real asset prices tend to lead real cycles, while loan-to-GDP and loan-to-deposit ratios lag them. Using a probit analysis, we document that downturns in real asset prices, particularly real house prices, are useful leading indicators of economic recessions.
Subjects: 
macro-financial linkages
turning point analysis
probit models
JEL: 
C53
E32
E37
G17
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
ISBN: 
978-952-6699-59-2
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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